Discover a series of articles on this subject.
1/3 : Colombia.

In Colombia, 95% of farms are small (2 to 5 hectares). There are three main categories of cropping systems:

• Monoculture in full sun
• Shade cultivation, often associated with Hevea brasilensis (latex trees)
• Cultivation in forest environments with a high diversity of species (other "cash crops", banana trees, etc.)

Average productivity reaches 900 kg/ha.
70 to 80% of production costs are related to labor.

The impact today

• Between 1970 and 2019, the average temperature in Colombia increased by +1.2°C .
• While the volume of annual precipitation remains generally stable, or even increasing in certain regions, its distribution is becoming increasingly irregular.
• The minimum altitude suitable for growing coffee has fallen by 200 to 300 meters.
• Increasing cloud cover reduces the sunlight needed for coffee plants to thrive, calling into question shading in agroforestry systems.
• Crops are more exposed to production losses due to the increase in extreme weather events.
• Finally, there is an intensification of pest and disease attacks.

The impact by 2050

The expected impacts will be similar to those observed today in Colombia, but with increased intensity:

• Risk of intensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes , influencing temperatures, precipitation and seasonality. Among the main producing countries, Colombia will be the most affected due to its proximity to the area where the phenomenon occurs.
• Temperature rise estimated at between +1.3 and +2.5°C, accentuated by the ENSO effect.
• Slight increase in annual precipitation, but with marked seasonal variations.
• Amplification of climatic differences between dry and rainy seasons, with more pronounced differences in terms of temperature, precipitation and sunshine.
• 30% increase in the risk of extreme rainfall events.

Coffee crops in full mutation

The major impact will be the shift of areas suitable for Arabica cultivation to higher altitudes . By 2050, 15 to 30% of the areas currently suitable for coffee production will become uncultivable . Conversely, the lower altitudes currently suitable for Arabica could become favourable for Robusta , a species still rarely found in Colombia.

Another major consequence: the increased proliferation of diseases and pests, particularly above 1,500 meters, where rising temperatures will create more favorable conditions for their development.

Finally, crop productivity will increasingly depend on weather conditions in March, a key period for coffee flowering. Yields could improve at higher altitudes, but they may decrease at lower altitudes, with shorter production cycles and more irregular harvests. Overall, cup quality could also be affected. Faced with these upheavals, production models will have to evolve to adapt to the new climatic realities.

Regional impacts

The most affected regions will be northern Colombia and low-lying areas, where the increase in maximum temperatures and the decrease in annual rainfall (from 30 to 64 mm) will put strong pressure on coffee production. Apart from the ENSO phenomenon, which will further amplify these changes, the study identifies several critical areas: the Northwest, the North, the Northeast, the Center of Santander and the South of Cesar .

Conversely, regions located in the southern Piedemonte Llanero and in the central Valle del Cauca will be relatively less exposed to climate impacts. However, new areas suitable for coffee cultivation will emerge, mainly at higher altitudes throughout the territory. However, these areas are often covered in primary forests, which could lead to increased pressure on these ecosystems if agricultural expansion is not strictly regulated. In addition, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will prohibit the import of coffee from recently deforested plots, thus limiting the uncontrolled expansion of coffee cultivation.

However, the evolution of coffee production remains difficult to anticipate, the impacts varying from one region to another and the behavior of producers being influenced by numerous economic and environmental factors.

Consequences for the coffee industry in Colombia

Arabica producers will face a significant increase in production costs, particularly in the fight against the intensification of diseases and pests. In addition, the ENSO phenomenon will lead to high variability in yields, directly impacting their income and their capacity to invest in adaptation strategies.

Nevertheless, Colombia benefits from a structured and responsive coffee sector. Institutions such as the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia (FNC) and the Centro Nacional de Investigaciones de Café (Cenicafé) have already initiated actions to promote more climate-resilient agricultural practices (climate-smart agriculture). They are supported by NGOs, large companies and innovative national policies, such as the "Acuerdo Café, Bosque y Clima" (Coffee, Forest and Climate Conservation), focused on preserving biodiversity.

Finally, many players in the sector, some of which are already partners of Belco, are already committed to more sustainable production models, enabling them to anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Source:

Summary of the analysis by the RISOME research office commissioned by BELCO on the impact of climate change on 3 coffee origins: Colombia, Brazil and Ethiopia.

https://risome.net